Xi, Tramp and the Thucydides Trap

What better way to call Donald Trump an ignoramus than by having the tyrant of an Eastern power pontificate about the wisdom of a Greek from 2,400 years ago? Xi Jinping could well have spoken in... Mandarin! The undue occupant of the sede vacante of Western leadership would have understood the same thing — nothing.

Positioning in these summits is very important. Xi positioned himself as a man of wealth and taste, a master in world culture, as if he were a graduate of Yale, Oxford, or the Sorbonne. And he didn't mention Sun Tzu, the world-renowned Chinese theorist of the art of war, who certainly has aphorisms for every use. No. He went into the core of Western culture — a classical Greek!

If he had quoted Sun Tzu, he would have said: beware of us, the Chinese, we know about the works! Speaking of Thucydides, he claims: we dominate all world culture. Sun Tzu, Thucydides, Clausewitz, whatever you want. We're on equal footing, man! And you have a beautiful establishment here, it would be a shame if some misfortune happened to it...

Xi exaggerated the caliber of the weapons he brought, facing the extremely corrupt, ignorant, and mentally diminished interlocutor he had before him.

Xi is rushing to take full advantage of the Trumpist geopolitical collapse, but in truth, China also has great weaknesses to hide behind its image as the emerging second world power. The model that enabled China's extraordinary growth is exhausted, and the economic, demographic, and political crisis has been worsening for years. China could indeed transform itself into the world's leading power — but it will first have to rid itself of the Communist Party dictatorship. Something Xi neither wants nor can do.

And about the Thucydides Trap? The issue isn't complicated. If a power that is second in dominance wants to become numero uno, it will probably have to have a fight with the power that is already in the lead. Not yet being the dominant power, it's more likely to get a beating.

Thucydides spoke of the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens, but Xi was more interested in the case between the US and China. His proposal is logical: What if we get this solved in peace?

It seems like a sensible proposal, if we don't consider the concrete points of Xi's demands (the ambition to annex Taiwan is certainly there).

Wars have become extremely expensive and destructive. They almost never result in a winner and a loser, but in both loosers.

Furthermore, competition between nations and powers no longer depends on military might. Economic competition leads to the supremacy of some powers and the ruin of others. Many statesmen today see war as an obstacle to progress, never as a tool for it. Putin's adventure in Ukraine looks like borderline national suicide.

It is undoubtedly commendable that Xi has taken a calming stance. It's pointless, because Trump hasn't listened to anything.

But China is not, and will not be in the near future, capable of attempting to seize the top geopolitical position. And the US, despite the astonishing catastrophe caused by Trump, is still in that position. Barely.